Black Gold (i.e. Oil) has lost its sheen, and how! Today, the cost of a litre of petrol or diesel for Indian oil majors is less than the price of a bottle of packaged water. Back-of-the-envelope calculations show that a litre of petrol costs about Rs 11 and diesel about Rs 14, excluding transportation and sundry other charges. By contrast, a one-litre bottle of water costs between Rs 12-15. 

Here’s how the arithmetic goes. A barrel of crude oil contains about …

Read complete post >>

As an analyst’s job is to analyse and not forecast, it’s time individuals used common sense approaches for picking stocks

We are going through turbulent times and investors have lost heavily as they had based their investment decisions on forecasts of the so-called experts. Many experts would agree that there are no geniuses in the markets. It’s the media who makes them (experts) or a short spell of luck.

Let’s go back just six months in time. We had practically most of the …

Read complete post >>

The global financial crisis assumed unprecedented proportions over the last few weeks. Governments across the world had to intervene and bail out many large and leading financial institutions, and the
entire financial system was on the brink of collapse in the USA and Europe. Not surprisingly, the equity markets globally have turned extremely edgy. The ruthless carnage has taken our markets to the 10,000 levels—that’s a correction of over 50% from the highs of 21,000 in January 2008. Clearly, these are …

Read complete post >>

The top line of prime information technology (IT) companies is expected to grow in the range of 5.6-9.3% quarter on quarter (qoq) in Q2-FY2009. The revenue growth would be primarily driven by the depreciation of the rupee against the US Dollar, which is likely to boost the top line growth by 4-4.5% on a sequential basis. In dollar terms, the revenues of these companies are expected to grow in the range of 1.5-5.2% on a sequential basis backed by a …

Read complete post >>

Many of the top pharmaceutical companies are expected to report a healthy 23% increase in revenues for Q2-FY2009. It would mainly be driven by a steady growth in the domestic market, the new product launches in the regulated markets, a strong growth in the contract research and manufacturing services businesses and the consolidation of the acquisitions made in the previous year. With exports accounting for over 50% of the pharmaceutical industry’s revenues, the weaker rupee would also aid the top line …

Read complete post >>

The condition of India’s macro-economy as well as banking sector remains weak with inflation hovering at 12% levels, the rupee weakening against the dollar, the fiscal deficit widening and persistent fears of an economic slowdown. All this translates into myriad concerns pertaining to the visibility of banks’ earnings growth. Further, the dislocation in global financial space has resulted in either the bankruptcy of the major players (Lehman Brothers Holdings) or voluntary/forcible sell-out of the others (Merrill Lynch, Wachovia, Washington Mutual).

Amidst …

Read complete post >>